Earthquake Prediction: Long-Term

From the creator

Use this link to make use of our special offer for Curiosity Stream: https://curiositystream.com/Sabine Correction to what I say at 2 mins 56 seconds: It's the US geological survey, not service. Sorry about that. Correction to what I say at 4 mins 35 seconds: They USGS has estimated the probability of a major earthquake in the SF bay area by 2043 with 72% (as you see in the figure) and not 75% (as I erroneously say). Sorry about that. I recently heard a seminar about how earthquakes correlate with the length of the day. Bullshit, I thought. After the seminar I thought it wasn't all that crazy. I then fell into a rabbit hole of papers on earthquake prediction. It's absolutely fascinating! I had no idea that geological processes correlate with so many other events. In this video we'll talk about long-term and mid-term forecasts, correlations with the length of the day (which again is correlated with the wind), with solar activity, and with the tides. Next week we'll talk about short-term forecasts. In hindsight I should have stressed more in this video that while everything I talk about has been published in peer reviewed journals, there is no consensus in the community about whether these claims are correct. Those are all very recent developments. So please don't think this is settled science, it's very much work in progress. The report I mention at the very beginning is here: https://www.undrr.org/publication/economic-losses-poverty-disasters-1998-2017 The USGS map f

Published 2022-01-22 · Watch on YouTube ↗
Availability and playback restrictions are controlled by the original channel.